A quick topological analysis of the Electric Vehicle industry and its future.
Originally, this text was part of a quick Analysis submitted as part of a job application for a major Investment Fund. This article explores the 3 different paradigms in the current stage and immediate future of the Electric Vehicle industry.
EV Current Paradigms
Since the establishment of the ‘Tesla EV paradigm’, many automotive manufacturers have joined the Electric Vehicle production Era with their own interpretations of what the most efficient mechanisms for sourcing, manufacturing and assembly are.
For their characteristics, I have differentiated 3 main approaches and topological interpretations of EV manufacturing as EV 1a, EV 1b and EV 2.
EV Paradigm 1a
Many are the examples of Car makers that have, or are, increasing their Giga-scale-like manufacturing plants <Insert Cars x plant data here>…
We can call this approach EV Paradigm 1a and it might be represented by excellence by the Tesla Model 3 product, which we will take as reference point in this analysis.
TOTAL COST : $28,000
MATERIALS : $18,000
LABOR : $10,000
RETAIL : $35,000
Paradigm 1a is defined, among other important factors left out at this moment by:
- Massive manufacturing plants with high outputs
- Proprietary Charging Networks
- Robust / Demanding customer services
- Complicated, slow and expensive repair infrastructure and technical servicing.
If the other relevant factors relative to the 1a paradigm, that must be considered in the current analysis are explored at this moment… the goal of this article might reveal as self-evident to the reader too quickly. So, for the purpose of timing and fun, let’s postpone those, move to the next point, and later consider the previous.
EV Paradigm 1b
To my knowledge, at the current moment there is only one company inhabiting and conceived around the 1b Paradigm space, that is Arrival with its concept of Micro-factory ( I prefer the term Fractoring = Fractal + Factory ).
In this paradigm, the manufacturing approach is more contained, and of a fractal nature, trying to source components and materials from as close as possible to the manufacturing and assembly location; there is also a certain modularity to the vehicles and the use of advanced compounds.
The Next EV Paradigm
It might or might not be so obvious (from looking at the numbers above, and the differentiation between paradigms 1a & 1b)… what the next paradigm might be.
It is possible that only knowing the shared commonalities of developing-countries and the particularities of their consumers, priorities and goals, that this conception for a new emerging market becomes almost self-evident, but in any case, this is what my prediction for the EV Paradigm 2 will be determined by:
- Vehicles designed for simplicity; progressive and modular Self-Assembly.
- Any mechanic, electric engineer or car enthusiast should be able to assemble the vehicle. Parts & components will be shipped to a residence, car shop, or a dedicated small facility with proper tools and the vehicles will be assembled there. This will imply a cost saving of around $10,000 just in labor (which should be quite higher when vehicles are designed to be ‘decentrassemblied’).
- Numerous possible configurations & platforms, updateable & upgradeable.
- Open source standards & interchangeable parts
- Open-Source / non-proprietary / or Shared charging networks
- Decentralized certification of Assembly and Servicing Personal
- No customer service
- High self-diagnosing / self Technical-inHabilitation mechanisms.
- Collective & decentralized financing & commercial operation through apps. (ride-sharing/taxi-modes)
Particularly for Latin America, this could be the best approach to the electrification of rural and semi-rural transport with the right vehicle designs.
This paradigm would probably look a lot like the traditional ICE Sport-Tuning or PC-modding scenes, with particularly good ‘local or regional assembly houses’ dominating their local markets by offering a superior assembly, their own warranties, servicing, and even insurancing products.