Migration as a Complex Spectrum

Ernesto Eduardo Dobarganes
6 min readFeb 3, 2024

X-Raying and Risk-Assessing Bret Weinstein’s 2 immigrations types.

The Problematic and Controversial Evolutionary Biologist, Professor, Scientist, Podcaster, Sporadic Comedian, full-time Bat Nerd and Badass Patriot Bret Weinstein has recently published a series of reports, interviews and conversations derived from his recent visit to the Darién Gap where he ended up observing and hypothesizing that there were 2 clearly differentiated types of Migration coming to the USA. This piece will try to provide evidence that confirms or refutes this hypothesis.

First things first: A Personal Disclaimer

Over the course of my life I have formulated or distilled, and then tested and treasured, and also sometimes discarded, a large number of heuristics… one of the most valuable ones has been that of:

Mostly interpreting my own personal experience, just as another data-point in the great context of human collective action and history; without ignoring the substantial difference in qualia, reliability and detail that Lived Experience offers, but without attributing any additional weight to it to minimize personal biases and facilitate a more multiperspectival look at the world and its systems.

Right heading, never mind the fingers.

Having considered this, and with the deliberate intent to present my arguments from a neutral 3rd person position, I still must point that:

  • I was born in Cuba in 1981, migrated legally to the USA in 2013.
  • All of my maternal and half of my paternal families in Cuba have migrated to both Europe and the USA in what is a far too common and increasing global fractional chaos experienced by billions of people of whom Cubans are certainly a special case, but that still reflects the general dynamics of what is now a quasi-legal business model of International Human Trafficking.
  • Personally, my life, my family and its potential has benefited immensely from having risked absolutely all of my possessions, marital, professional and family relations and certainly but less importantly, personal safety… to come to the USA.

    But I must also honor, for example, Enrique… an uncle that I never met that was severely beaten in front of my Grandma and expelled from Cuba in 1980, and forced to keep flying back and forth between Havana and Madrid in the same plane for several days until he was finally admitted by Spain and who ended up taking his life after a decade of separation and spiritual suffering despite having a much better economic status.
  • This level of drama, rupture and separation is more or less average for a Cuban family of a city like Havana, and much more common since maybe “El Mariel”, or “La crisis de los balsertos”… for the whole fucking island, and for every damn generation, each with its own distinct particularities but all with huge human losses.

So, it should be pretty clear that Immigration is, socioculturally and humanly, an extremely expensive process that while it tends to increase (via workforce relocation) short-term GDP… it induces huge demographic, institutional, bureaucratic, cultural, urban, political and psychosocial changes, stresses and tensions in both emitting and receiving countries with profound and complex consequences at all timescales.

So tough that she didn’t even need to write “Handle with Care”.

Immigration as an exploit.

COVID is the best and most recent reveal of how the arsenal of measures for totalitarian control of populations is being extensively used by theoretically democratic governments to deal with events of high complexity, given that decisions can be made faster without having to find political compromise among players opting for different strategies which tends to be very time consuming.

With today’s levels of dynamic uncertainty and chaos, those governmental systems that rely on strict due-processes and respect of Law and Order are largely condemned, most of the times, to be exploited by organizations of any kind with faster OODA loops and with enough logistic capabilities to exploit such niches like Cartels, Narco-Governments, Mafias of all scales, a varieties of criminal and terrorist organizations and an infinitude of small and large networks that span activities like Extorsion, Kidnapping, Murder, Prostitution, Drugs and Human and Organ Trafficking.

Like Bret Weinstein correctly noticed, when there are large migration flows, large amounts of intelligence, military and influence personnel can be interpolated by a variety of means and be disguised among the generalized disorder and go by unnoticed masqueraded by the stupidly large amounts of cases and lack of human resources to correctly process every applicant, let alone those who enter the USA and are never accounted for. News about hundreds of cases of known Cuban intelligence agents, repressors, and officials who have inexplicably passed the interview at the border can be easily Googled.

At this point, it is quite evident that governments like Cuba have used migration as a central element of their political leverage with the USA, and there is a studied methodology that clearly Venezuela and China are also currently implementing. The diplomatic leverage offered by large migration flows have recently allowed Dictators to literally laugh at Biden’s US in its own face… this was not happening when Trump was in power.

Migration as an industry.

Now, while the economic implications of migration are many at many levels, here is a break down of some of the most important dynamics that are always at play:

Immigration at national levels, tends to be a phenomena that take place in waves. It is common that initially the most wealthy sectors of a society are the first to leave when conditions are unfavorable enough. Later, as economic inefficiencies advance, more and more people with progressively less resources are forced to leave… this is the stage where Cuba and Venezuela are, and have been, for a very long time, decades in the case of the Tropical Island.

One of the most important implications of migration flows are its effects on real estate, making it more available and cheap in the emitting country, and more scarce and expensive in the nation of destination. In the case of Cuba, the government strategically engineers different migratory paths for people with different levels of resources and official involvement. One must note that the vast majority of migrants must sell all of their possessions, including home, to finance their journey. This evidently constitute a source of political relief for countries that have serious housing deficits in the same way in which immigration put a huge demand and stress on the housing market inside the USA, specially rents, this disproportionally affects low income demographics.

Each 1% of increase in Demand = 2% increase in Price

It must be considered as well, the relief on physical and institutional infrastructure in the emitting countries, whom now only have to provide its diaspora with means to send remittances and the huge economic convenience that represents for inefficient and incompetent governments to have GDP sent directly from the outside with no coordination effort and at virtually 0 cost. This is obviously extremely destructive at medium and long term given that the countries of origin are losing their most risk-taking and productive and entrepreneurial forces and consequently, also subsequent generations.

In Cuba, for example, in the last 2 years, the number people who left the country triplicated that of births.

Finally, the 2 Immigration types.

So yes, there is a fully personal model of migration and, at least in the case of the Cuban Communist Party (CCP) and surely also in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), there are state-designed, state-sponsored, state-coordinated, state-instigated and state-facilitated migration pathways and procedures that deliberately allow them to insert their own elements (that are by the own definitions of the USGOV), dangerous enemies of the USA, criminals and terrorists.

Many of these individuals are sent with very ambiguous instructions of taking as much advantage from the USA as possible, and comparably would otherwise be relatively unproductive in their own countries of origin, so it is always a Win/Win situation for the Uni-Party. Importantly, a minority of the state-sponsored migration is composed of highly trained and committed individuals that are mostly sent with whole networks of influence and support already in place.

I propose then, that each particular case is a combination of all the factors mentioned above, but that there is indeed a large group of immigrants that arrive to the USA mostly as a result of active loyalty to their anti-American governments and their respective strategic objectives… those deserve to be in their own special category of High National Security Risk.

Muchas Gracias.

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Ernesto Eduardo Dobarganes

Self-taught Polymath. Space Entrepreneur Wannabe. Science, Nature, Tech, Sports, Arts & Martial Arts enthusiast.