Cuba’s Future: A Bifurcation Thesis

Ernesto Eduardo Dobarganes
3 min readDec 4, 2023


Introduction to the Bifurcation Thesis

Cuba stands at a pivotal crossroads in its history following the inevitable and imminent collapse of its communist social system, a situation anticipated in the wake of Raul Castro’s accelerating demise and the total and absolute incapacity of the system and its obsolete and incompetent agents to reform themselves. This collapse, driven by factors such as corruption, scarcity, oppression, inefficiency, and internal power struggles, will lead the country down one of two distinctly divergent paths.

The first path is characterized by high entropy and low productivity, leading to a destabilized society mired in corruption and crime. In contrast, the second path promises low entropy and high productivity, capitalizing on Cuba’s human, geopolitical, and natural resources to transform the naturally paradisiac tropical island and its effervescent population into a dynamic, prosperous, resilient and progressive society.

CUBA: High Entropy VS Low Entropy futures.

Path 1: High Entropy, Low Productivity

Descent into Chaos

This scenario is the least energy-demanding one, and by default, history will follow the path of least resistance; so we could see how without the Propper interventions, Cuba descends into a state of disarray reminiscent of post-Soviet Eastern Europe, but with the distinct features of Latin American countries. The power vacuum left by the collapse of the communist regime breeds widespread corruption and nepotism, severely undermining the rule of law and eliminating every possible path to competitive yet fair and humane social, political and economic development.

Rise of Crime and Gangsterism

As the state’s PCC authority fully wanes, organized crime and gangsterism flourish. Drug trafficking, human smuggling, and other illicit activities become rampant, as criminal syndicates exploit the country’s strategic location. This criminal underworld, intertwined with corrupt political elements, creates a shadow economy that further destabilizes the country’s legitimate economic activities.

Economic Deterioration

The economy spirals into further decline, characterized by low productivity and high unemployment. Cuba becomes a ‘banana republic’, heavily reliant on a few primary commodities, with little to no investment in sustainable economic development. The society is plagued by poverty, inequality, and social unrest, making it difficult to attract foreign investment or aid.

High Entropy, Low Energy State.

Path 2: Low Entropy, High Productivity

Economic Renaissance through Technology and Manufacturing

Embracing this path, Cuba undergoes a dramatic transformation, leveraging its proximity to the USA and its rich human and natural resources. It establishes itself as a near-shoring hub for advanced industries like semiconductor manufacturing, space technology, electric vehicles, and high-tech manufacturing. These industries provide a significant boost to the economy, creating high-value jobs and attracting foreign investment.

Focus on Sustainable Agriculture and Education

Regenerative agriculture becomes a cornerstone of this new era, ensuring food security and environmental sustainability. Cuba’s agricultural sector, adopting innovative practices, becomes a model for the Caribbean and Latin America. Concurrently, the education system undergoes a radical overhaul, focusing on futuristic and technology-oriented curricula, producing a workforce adept in new technologies and industries.

Geopolitical and Economic Stability

This path fosters a stable and prosperous Cuba that plays a significant role in regional politics and the global economy. The country becomes a beacon of progress and innovation in the Caribbean, influencing neighboring countries through its economic success and political stability. International relations, especially with the United States, are normalized and strengthened, further integrating Cuba into the global economy.

Low Entropy, High Energy State.

The next piece in this series of essays will present a tool for collapsing the System’s Wave Function in the low entropy configuration.

Muchas gracias.

Ernesto Eduardo.



Ernesto Eduardo Dobarganes

Self-taught Polymath. Trying to beat Einstein while staying humble. Invented fastest Engine & Vehicle ever (~299,972 km/s).